Why do skeleton arguments take so long?

What do Wembley Stadium, this blog post and your most recent skeleton argument have in common? They all took much longer than planned to complete. But why?

Experience doesn’t always help

An experienced junior barrister asked me recently whether I could offer any guidance around estimating the length of time a piece of work will take.

I knew the answer, instinctively. Longer than expected.  Much. much longer.

But why? Surely my experience of writing these blog posts every week, for example, would allow me to predict accurately the amount of time I will need to write the next one?

Well, apparently not.

Hofstadter’s Law: the law of things taking ages to complete 

According to the cognitive scientist Douglas Hofstadter, any task you’re planning to complete will take longer than expected, even when Hofstadter’s Law is taken into account*.

Since a refutation of this theory has yet to take hold, it seems prudent to bear this in mind when you’re estimating your next piece of work.

If you know you can’t foresee the full extent of the complexity at the outset, but believe you’ll uncover complexity later, make an estimate based on your past experience and add an extra 50%. 

This approach will give you a fighting chance of being paid for all the time you spend on the matter.

Technology could help 

If you’re interested in data-driven estimation tools, there are numerous free and premium time-tracker apps that can help. I like Toggl and Top Tracker.  

If you prefer a non-digital option, print this, laminate it and use it for the next few weeks to track your time against routine tasks. 

And then add 50% when you plan the same task next time. 

*A journalist’s summary of Hofstadter’s Law. 

By Heidi Smith
Creator of Jurilogical.com